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A weekly loss

Posted by Satuki On March - 7 - 2010

I do not remember when I had a negative week last time. It was perhaps some time in early 2009. Now here it comes again. I am down more than 400 dollars last week.

 

Having looked at all the trades from the the last week, I found 2 issues.

  1. Not a single  winner
  2. Bad judgement about the general direction

 

Not a single winner

I normally aim for a 1.5% -2% move, which gives me 300$-400$ in profits because my position size is worth about 20k on average. Only one move was needed to cover all the losses. But I caught none. These small losers were the direct results of whipsawing.

 

For example, I shorted CF(CF Industries Holdings) and CLF(Cliffs Natural Resources ) on last Friday.   They never really moved in my direction that much.  I could have had a small profit in my CF short(200 dollars). But it was not my plan.  My thinking was “OK move 1% more, I would break even this week”. It was a wishful thinking and that position ended up flat.

 

Click on the image to have a better view

 

Bad judgement about the general direction.

We had a nice rally last week.  But 50% of my positions were on the short(wrong) side. Trading against the general trend is like an uphill battle, which is totally opposite of choosing the path of least resistance.

 

There is at least one shinning spot in my trading last week. That is my risk control. A loss of 400$ in a week is perhaps nothing because I only need one winner to cover that.

 

By the way, although there is 150k sitting in my account, I rarely use more than 50k at one time. But knowing that I have enough capital to cover the rainy days(a long losing streak) makes me sleep better.


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Most Commented Posts


  • Dale

    Mom if you never had a losing week then I would think something was wrong and that you are not really trading. What was interesting was on how well you limited your losses.

  • Arbinvestor

    Hi Satuki

    I keep an eye on your trades on a fairly frequent basis via stocktwits and my hunch is you are trading on too short a time scale even for a momentum scalper. I have looked at a few recent trades and i think i can see why you executed the trades but cannot see why you closed the position on at least half of them (well the ones i looked at). The selection from the large vol high beta universe is good (i trade many of the same firms short and long). I guess a lot of the trades you dont want to hold over night / over weekend. Of late holding positions over the weekend has often worked well especially ahead of mutual fund Monday. Great site and great work – good luck in the coming month.

    Arb

  • http://www.momdaytrader.com/blog/ Satuki (Trader Mom)

    I had a few of losing weeks in 2009. This is my first in 2010. I like your skepticism, which is very healthy. Actually, I only keep track of my monthly performance. As for my weekly, I only keep it in my head. So it might not be very accurate.

    By the way, I have way passed cutting losers fast. Cutting losers fast is basically day trading 101. There is nothing amazing about it

    Here is my stats since I started trading in 2005.

    Down 5% 2005
    Down 30% 2006, about 30k
    Up 47% 2007
    Flat 2008
    Up 59% 2009

  • http://www.momdaytrader.com/blog/ Satuki (Trader Mom)

    I never hold any positions overnight in this account. I do not have a very rigid rule for exiting a trade. I do not wait for a position to hit my SL. Any sense of danger will trigger my exiting, for example, a large sell order printed on the tape, a time stop…

  • Arbinvestor

    Does this mean that your methodology is for entries only? My experience and some great teachers have led me to believe that knowing your trades exits and correct position size is absoloutely critical. 20k positions on a 150k account will make you jump out the moving car probably too often.

  • http://www.momdaytrader.com/blog/ Satuki (Trader Mom)

    Exit is 10 times harder than entry. Did you see how much it tortured Nicolas Darvas? There are a lot that I need to learn about exiting.

    >> 20k positions on a 150k account will make you jump out the moving car probably too often

    You might call me crazy. See how many trades I took in a month in 2007 here. http://www.momdaytrader.com/blog/2009/12/02/hig…

    I just hope one day I could get back to that level of trading again.

  • http://twitter.com/bbpan Sam Fung

    Sometimes you just got to feel “good” about money-losing trades when you followed your setup, even though the price didn't move to the direction you wanted. The way I see it is all about finding high probability trade favor to your side.

    Nice work on your website. It's so inspiring that I decided to start my own blog and share my trade setups.

  • http://www.momdaytrader.com/blog/ Satuki (Trader Mom)

    Let us know when your blog is up. We always want people who like to share their ideas.

  • Keywa

    I use alot of technical analysis, but the overall direction of “all boats”, for me is based on the 'mood' of the market. I found that the Greek thing lead to a souring of the market, hence the recent pull back. After Greece got out of the media line-up the mood of the market changed and the over-all mood (still not bad times) took over, so the market moves prices higher. With the employment number on Friday giving the a surprise positive, that gave another mood signal that the large players (Goldman) could push the market even higher, even though the technicals show we are approaching old highs. BTW a weekly loss is not the point, all loosers in a week is tough to handle. A 100% loss week happened to me more often than I care to admit before I started to use the market mood analysis before technicals analysis.

  • http://www.momdaytrader.com/blog/ Satuki (Trader Mom)

    Agreed. The general psychology of the market is way more important than any indicator, which is a dime a dozen

  • http://www.momdaytrader.com/blog/ Satuki (Trader Mom)

    Agreed. The general psychology of the market is way more important than any indicator, which is a dime a dozen


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