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Four Stocks: AMZN, BIDU, IOC and GMCR

Posted by Satuki On January - 5 - 2010

First,I have 2 stocks on steroids. One is GMCR(Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.) and the other is IOC(InterOil Corporation) . I looked around on the web trying to find a bit of news/rumors that propelled these 2 guys so high and so quickly.  I did not find anything tangible for GMCR and found a little bit on IOC.

 

So GMCR is basically running on drugs.  It is like CROX in 2007 which saw a massive short squeeze.  Massive short squeeze happens when inexperience shorts keep hammering a stock on drugs. Yes, the shorts were right about crox. However, their timing sucked.

 

GMCR might not tank like CROX when the flood gates open. But it will come back down for sure. Once it starts to go down, it might drop quite a bit since some shorts and the profitable/trapped bulls will pile on each other looking for exit.  I will be looking closely for good intra-day short entries in GMCR.  I would advice against swing shorting into it since it is against the big trend. 

 

GMCR

 

IOC has signed some kind of deal with Government of Papua New Guinea. I did not look much into the deal.  Even if the deal is very solid, it might have shot up a bit too fast. I will trade it the same as GMCR.

 IOC

 
Secondly, I have 2 other stocks that are showing some weakness. One is Amazon and the other Bidu.  These 2 guys are very solid companies.  But at their current valuations, they are a bit stretched.  As we can see from their charts, they have been kind of sluggish lately. This is especially obvious in BIDU.

AMZN

 

 

BIDU

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Most Commented Posts


  • I love GMCR - It's been a great trade for me as well. I did a post on it as a rebound/bungee stock a couple weeks ago!
    .-= Doctor Stock´s last blog ..Trade Alert Series - Part 2 of 4 =-.
  • jeff
    They can't stay up forever. Just look at AMZN and even GOOG--faltering lately. Trick is to be in at the right time or if you miss the timing, be liquid enough ride the rough times. Scaling in and/or hedging with options are a great strategy when the fundamentals+technicals say overbought but price action says no (or not yet).
  • >>They can’t stay up forever
    This could not be more true. I believe whatever goes up comes down. I think I need to learn how to hedge with options. Stop loss is a great defense. But the gap up/downs make me hesitate to swing trade without the knowledge of option hedging

    I hope you catch a good move in GMCR when it comes down. In the mean time, I will nibble at it in day trading.
  • jeff
    Stop loss is definitely a good defense but I find it most useful for day trading purposes. I've only used options for hedging long positions until last week when I shorted AMZN @142.30 and hedged by buying the Jan. 140 call option.

    I don't think you'll have any problems with options once you understand how to use it. One thing I like about options is that you don't necessarily have to be bullish or bearish. You can take on extremely or moderately bearish or bullish positions. And it's a great way to play those over $150 or sub $5 stocks.

    Thanks and I hope to see you take on those swing positions soon. I think there is still one more spike (blow off top?) for GMCR. If not, then there will be others. MRVL is another stock I'm looking at. What do you think about it?
  • I do not see any weakness in MRVL daily chart as of now. I would wait a bit.
  • jeff
    GMCR's steroid induced rise began with this: http://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/Green...

    I think that's still the reason but volume today appears to be low. Could be the first sell signal. DPO and other indicators on the daily show negative divergence.

    Weekly for now shows a bearish doji. So there still could be a blow off top between today and tomorrow. I'm looking for one more spike up and will scale in for a swing short trade using options
  • If the general market holds, they might hold too. Some kind of triggers are needed to burst the bubbles.
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