We are done with 2009, which was a very wild year for both investors and traders. The gut wrenching drops before March 2009 are perhaps still vivid for many of us. The amazing comeback so far perhaps have already made some forget what has happened. It has attracted a lot of aspiring new traders who overheard about some amazing returns their friends/relatives have earned in 2009. It is what it is now and will remain the same in the future because it was the human psychology that carried the DOW to around 6000 in March and also brought it back to 10428 in 9 months and we will never change.
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For 2009, you can see the stats of my trading above. It is decent. The percentage gain is actually nothing. A friend of my husbands, who is basically a noob, made a triple digit return in 2009. He does not know anything about risk control or money management. But he entered the market in April with the buy-and-hold strategy in his mind. So whatever he bought rose. It is not because he is good at picking stocks although he thinks he is. It is because the rising tide lifts all boats. You would be actually very unlucky to have bought a garbage like Drys.
Another example is that my husband’s 401k has made 43% in 2009 after it sank 55% in 2008. So my 59% return was not much of a big deal. The market basically allowed enough room to create that kind of returns. Nevertheless, one bright spot in my trading is that I do not have a single down month in 2009. I almost eliminated weekly draw-downs in the later half of 2009.
What is ahead of us in 2010? One thing I know is that we might not get the kind of wild swings we had in 2009. In other words, we might see a normal year that moves up/down around 10%. This will test our trading skills.
Here are my new years resolutions 2010,
- Improve the accuracy of my entries
- Keep my current draw-downs
- Try to make 4000 per month
- Learn Forex
Improving the accuracy of my entries will certainly help me with resolution 3. But I will achieve that mainly by increasing my position size. My starting capital is 150k for 2010. My goal is a 30% annual return without compounding, which translates into $45000 per year. 45000 a year is what average people can make in the US. In addition, I work 4 hours a day doing the thing I am most passionate about. So I will be content with that number for now.
Good luck in 2010. “Good luck” is just an expression. We know very well how much “luck” counts in our trading.
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