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Evil Whipsaws!

Posted by Satuki On August - 4 - 2009

It was another flat day, during which whipsaws were all over the place.  I have never had problems cutting losers. My ability to ride winners is improving too.  But whipsaw is another huge issue I need to overcome.

 

I woke up this morning as usual and the first thing I did was to check the Futures market, which pointed lower.  Therefore, I was a bit biased toward the bear side.  Next, I looked at my watch list and found most of the energy stocks were red.   So the energy sector was on my hit list.  Due to my limited firepower, I need to concentrate all my resources on the weakest/strongest sector. Do not waste any energy looking at stocks like MSFT, WMT that move like a 90 year old turtle.   I think some turtles can live for a few hundreds years.  Anyway, you get the idea.

 

So I kept hitting WLT and HES.  By noon, I was down 200+ due to the crazy whipsaws.  It was the same in the afternoon.  Due to a string of losers in the AM, I was happy to break even by the close. But I did not recover the losses. It is normally my siesta time from 12 to 2. In today’s case, I missed a good move in HES during that time. I would have broken even if the move had occurred after 2. See the chart below

 

Click the chart to have a better view


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  • Mom
    sorry. here it is again. After you signup go to "your public portfolio" can post the link! my screenname is moneyshaker
  • Mom
    hey mom,
    i'd like to see your portfolio in real time. if you join the website i typed in above we can watch your trades. keep up the great work. i follow you on stocktwits.... i'm also a member of the [above] website
  • The site you typed in does not work.
  • Matty
    I found this blog by googling how to trade the faz. I like your blog a lot. And yes, I got smacked down hard today going long the faz. I am clearly new at this :)
  • Cathy
    I'm hardly an expert, beginner status, so please check this out for yourself, but one thing I've discovered as a pretty good indicator is the euro-yen. It shows the amount of risk investors are willing to take and translates well to the general market. So for example, on Sunday night it was 134, pretty decent given action in past months, but then it jumped to nearly 136 by Monday morning, indicating Monday would be a very good day. By Monday night, it was up to 137, but it was slipping down and was 136 by this am. That to me said that today would be weaker, but not terrible. Now I see it's up over 137, so my assumption is tomorrow is trend up again, but I will check again in the am. I'm not a day trader, more of swing trader, weeks/months long trades, so perhaps this won't work for you. Or even me, maybe it's been a fluke all along.
  • That is an interesting theory. I will check it out. Thank you.
  • Jennifer
    Bah, today was less than ideal for me too. Not easy to maneuver through.
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