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STEC: Do we have a short here?

Posted by Satuki On July - 14 - 2009

STEC has moved from 5 to 27 within 3 months.  I did not find too much information on why It had a late day rally on 7/13. Form the chart below, we can tell that the long up shadow today shows that the bulls are a bit long in the tooth.  There is no such a thing as “a never fallen stock”.   It is a strong stock in the long term.  But it might be a bit of tired after such a run. You know what most of the longs with profitable positions are thinking now.  They probably ask themselves one hundred times a day if they should lock in their profits.  Any weakness in STEC will kick them out, which will cause a decent drop for us to profit from.

 

See the charts below( click to enlarge).

Daily

 

5-Min

 

I will watch this stock tomorrow closely.  My stretgey is to wait for weakness and jump in on a break-down.  It will be a day trade though.   So my target will be a 3% move.   Nothing is for sure in trading.  Always remember to control your risk.

 

Are you interested in STEC?   If you are, how would you play it?


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  • Troy
    Do you try to catch the falling knife by buying?? Bucking the trend is not a high probability trade. Is it possible to still short it in the short run...yes but you better be very nibble and quick to cover. This is a high stress/drama trade. Why do it when there are so many other trending shorts(higher probability) trades?
  • I have been bucking the medium/long term trend in my day trading all the time. No stress at all because I am good at it. A stock that has been trending higher daily might be in a small down trend in the 5/15 min windows like Brook suggested above.

    "follow the trend" works against short term traders. Like I said before, every stock zigzags. Most of the time, It is too late when you spot the trend in a stock. When you believe you have found the trend in a stock, it is time for that stock to have a dead cat bounce or a pull back. No matter how small that dead cat bounce is, it might shake you out of your position since you,as a short term trader, will use a very tight stop loss.

    I believe that a lot of people know the theory "follow the trend". But I think only a tiny fraction of them can make money. Try some trending shorts like ICE, POT, or MOS, They will bounce any time.

    Your theory is correct for mid term/long term swing traders. That is why you do not see me swing short STEC or swing long ICE.
  • Brook
    Yes -- that makes sense -- I was confused by the play shown on the daily chart -- it will be interesting to see what happens on the 5' / 15'tomorrow -- whatever happens on the 5' stays on the 5' -- ha ha. I would look to the 60' for guidance on the intraday though and not the daily as it confuses the purpose of the trade for me. Different style I guess as you said.

    Sometimes I will be shorting something in the income account and waiting for a long buy set up in the swing account on the same day so I totally get what you mean.

    Good trading today!
  • royskidorski
    I would short this if not too late on market open. stochastic has started to move down and it probably will go straight down to the previous 24.70s or 80s. or even lower.i'll add this to my watch list and short it first thing tomorrow.
  • Be careful shorting right into the market open. Intel moved up big after hours today, which will cause the market to gap up. If the general market gaps up, it might temporarily alleviate the bulls fear and thus keep STEC from dropping. Let's wait for signs of weakness.
  • Brook
    On the daily I think it would be pointless to short this in a strong uptrend where the rest of the market is not that lucky. I prefer to kick em when they are down (and slightly up) than to short into such a gorgeous smooth strong and vital uptrend (rare!).

    I will be looking for the restest of the breakout at the top of the base @ around $26 if it bounces there it would be a buy in my opinion given the uniform beuaty of this daily chart.

    (full disclosure I was short finacials all last week until end of Friday so it's not like I am a bull : )
  • It does not matter at all if you are a bull or a bear. There would be nothing worth reading if all our thoughts are the same. Key is everyone here has his/her own thoughts.

    I think shorting into an uptrend is still doable if you can control your risk well and are a short term trader. Let's use CYOU as an example. CYOU has been a very strong stock too. But each zag/drop has given a short term bear a decent return. Of course, it is very important for mid/long term traders to follow the trend. As for short term traders, trend might not matter that much since every stock zigs and zags.

    I am looking into a day trade only. STEC could easily drop 8-10% anytime. Take the head and the tail off of this move. I'd be happy with a 3% move.
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