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Possible Double Top?

Posted by Satuki On May - 21 - 2009

Here is the 60 minute chart of S&P 500 index. It is a promising double top and it has broken the short term trend line.   Will it materialize?  A lot of people actually talked about S&P touching 1000 before a meaningful retreat would happen.  It is a dangerous sign when a lot of people are expecting the same thing from the stock market. The stock market never behaves as the majority would like it to.  We see a lot of sudden moves in individual stocks because people are caught off guard.   Have you noticed that the stocks you watch like a hawk almost never move?

 

 

 

 

We might not see wild 500-600 point swing days like those we experienced early this year.  General volatility will dwindle and the general market might bounce around in a big trading range for the next few months.  

 

Day trading is bread and butter.  If you are skilled enough, it is your ATM. If you are not, you will be the ATM.


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  • Jeff
    Hi Satuki,

    Definitely see a double top. I also can see the S&P possibly testing the broken trend line forming a H&S pattern with the neckline around the 882 level. If this pattern develops, the leg down could be steep with those lows intersecting with the short term trend line acting as support levels. However, I do not think we will take out the March lows based purely only on technicals (wave 5 of Elliott Wave theory) meaning I think it will take that move down coupled with a drastic event ( US losing AAA rating, major calamity or war, etc) to take out the March lows. With that said, this correction could be forming the right shoulder of an inverse H&S on the 1 yr daily chart.

    So day trading is definitely the key with some possible swing trading on short and ultrashort etfs. I've stayed away from 3X etfs for now--i must admit, it feels somewhat liberating.
  • I feel the same way. That is why I have been very caustious with opening swing long positions. But I am not very convinced that it will go down hard. Of course once I have been convinced. it would be too late. What can we do? Hahaha.

    That is why day trading seems like such a darling to me. Yes, it is very hard. But it is doable and I can sleep well every night.
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