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First Attempt at SRS, Good or Bad?

Posted by Satuki On February - 10 - 2009

What a drop! I have not seen this kind of drop for a while. This is the kind of days all traders like you and me want to see. If you stayed on the right side and held onto your positions you’d make a killing. Today’s drop was caused by many reasons such as

  • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner did not address exactly how the government will spend the rescue funds.
  • The Old bulls took profits
  • The Bears came back with a vengeance

 

I think the first reason is the least important. That was just a trigger. Reason 2 and 3 are why the market plummeted.

 

I had 6 swing long positions and reduced them to 2 yesterday. I also went long on SRS today. It is not hard to see a baby bear crept into my mind.

 

As for my day trading today, I took one long trade in SRS @54.78, an inverse fund that goes up when the market goes down. So if you go long on it, it is like shorting the market.I ended up break-even (a tiny loss if the commission is included)in the SRS trade. My entry was almost close to perfect. Right after I entered it, it spiked to 56.60. I was talking to someone on Twitter. My first target for SRS was 57.00. After the spike, I moved my stop loss quickly to the break even point. I would never let a position that is up 4-5% turn into a loser. It retraced and took out my stop loss. With gut-wrenching pains, I watched it climb all the way to 62+ subsequently.

 

Did I do anything wrong in this trade? I totally stuck to my game plan. That was to trigger my trailing stop when it hit 57. What if I did not move my stop loss so quickly? What if I just closed my position during the first spike? What do you guys think? How would you take on this trade if you had the same entry as mine?

 

For swing trading, if you did not enter any short positions today, do not chase it. We might have another chance. Neither am I going to open any swing longs from here.


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  • Probir
    Could you send an email to my address, I deleted your by accident.

    When you're trading ETFS, find out what the components are and watch those and the news as indicators on your entries and exits. A lot of ETFs are administered by proshares.com, it's easy enough to find which stocks they are comprised of and what % those play. It changes a bit every so often but it's a really helpful indicator.

    If you're trading SRS, watch SPG in particular but also know that:
    Simon Property Group Inc. 6.82%
    Public Storage 5.87%
    Vornado Realty Trust 4.99%
    Annaly Capital Management Inc. 4.90%
    Equity Residential 4.64%
    HCP Inc. 4.03%

    To effectively trade SRS, open two level two boxes, one with SRS the other with SPG. Study the T/S, watch what each do in relation to the other. Open a chart and overlay SRS and SPG. Finally, if your trading platform allows you to follow spreads, create a spread between SRS and SPG and watch those. It takes a day or two of a somewhat intense study, but once you've figured out the relationship between the two, you can makes piles of money trading SRS.

    The same stands true for FAZ, although it's not a proshare and it's harder to find information on it. I've watched it for a while and find that following JPM is the most accurate way of understanding what FAZ will do.

    Do not swing these and make sure you have tight stop losses in place and honour those stops. I've watched SRS move $20 in a day, you really don't want to be on the losing side of that. It's much better to lose an opportunity than lose the money.

    Good luck.

    P.
  • You are welcome Rob. Most of them are just good for day trading unless you have the stomach for huge swings. I am as risk averse as people who like blue chip stocks.
  • Rob McEwen
    Thanks, Satuki, for sharing the details on the SRS trade, and to the others for their comments. The first rule in this game is that if you lose your toys you can't play anymore. Your risk management record is impressive and you should congratulate yourself for executing your plan. ETang's comment about re-entering makes sense -- you were right all along. I think the "bad luck" was just a hiccup caused by the 900# gorilla in the room (Geithner) clearing his throat to speak -- look at a chart of the Dow at 11:00.

    These double and triple leveraged ETF's are quite interesting -- I've been trading TBT since the first of the year first time from Jan 5 entry to Jan 7 exit and again from Jan 14 entry to Feb 9 exit. Made money both times, but the chart for the past couple of days (for TBT) is absolutely scary. I think your heading for your post "All Triple(3x) Leveraged ETF's -- Happy **DAY** Trading might be appropriate.

    Again, thanks for the site, I visit often...
  • Paul
    At least you broke even (almost). I sold my faz on Monday with a 1% loss just to watch it soaring on Tuesday. Didn't stick to my guns. Lesson learned. The hard way - as usual. Anyway, GREAT WEBSITE Satuki.
  • @jp. there are tons of ways to set stop losses. I normally use a few combined previous lows. Yeah it is hard to trade these 3X shares, which makes the whole game fun and interesting. Your advice is NOT bad at all. Key is if you can follow it through on each trade when you constantly stare at your positions.

    @Ray, we are in a big bear market. Any short term rally is good to short into for swing trades.
  • Ray
    At least you used a stop loss.. When I decided to play with SRS last year I didn't use a stop just due to the fact that I don't really how to set it up. I ended up loosing 500 each time I went in it before I cut my losses and called it quits with SRS. That etf has some scary volatility however if you play it right you will reap the rewards bigtime. If I had gotten into it back in November it would have been nice. SRS rocketed up to the 200s around nov 20 when market bottomed. Maybe we'll see a repeat? We are looking rather bearish now after that 400 pt drop Tuesday..
  • jp
    I'm new in the game, but it seems you ran up against a question I haven't answered yet either -
    where and how do you set a stop on such a volitile fund as a 3x?

    I'm not sure, but I think you need to look at the typical range of movement for 5min, look at your risk tolerance, and decide your profit taking point. If the usual swings are smaller than the loss you can stomach, you have a good stopping point for the fund - maybe even use that spread as a trailing stop.

    In my opinion, I think letting the winners run is usually the best plan, but with the crazy swings of a 3x I think it might be better to leave your first stop alone and just sit and manually close the position when you see a price you like and have a sense things might be turning.

    My advice is probably bad, though, because I've only lost so far with 3x, and I think they need a lot of babysitting, so I usually stay away unless I know I have the time to watch closely. I've only made money on 2-5 day swing trades so far.
  • Great point ETang. That is exactly what I did wrong.
  • ETang
    I don't think anything was wrong with your trade. I think the real question is should you have re-entered once it quickly recovered and got above your stop again.
  • CJ, I think it was bad luck. My stop was not too tight. Or maybe I should have just left my original stop alone which was set around 54. I need to think about this.
  • CJ Hawkes
    I think you did fine with your $srs position. Right after it spiked up to $57, it dipped as fast going back to $53ish. I'd have exited and even up too because I don't know how Geithner's address would go and how the market would react to it. $srs could've have go to $45 from $53 for all we know.

    Right arouund 11am after Geithner's address there's a huge spike up. I think that would've been a safer entry point. Unfortunately my money are stuck on other stocks :(.
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