Satuki @ Home

The husband wrecked his car today due to the faulty weather. He is actually a very good driver. He does not have a single ticket and never had an accident in the past. Thank God that none of the people involved in the accident was hurt. The car was not totaled. But it will cost a few thousand to have it fixed since he only has liability. He is still mentally stunned as I am writing this. Errrrrr… X dropped 7% today.. now onto stocks.

I added 2 in My Portfolio as you can see. FSLR and HES were stronger then I thought. They did not perform(drop) well today. My trailing stops for FSLR and HES have kicked in. So if they do not gap up significantly, these 2 guys will not become losers. X actually performed much better than all those in my portfolio. In fact, along with X, MOS,FSLR and GS, I was also watching PCX, DRYS and WLT. As you can see PCX, DRYS and WLT dropped spectacularly. PCX -15% ,DRYS -16% and WLT -11%. So FSLR and HES were like peanuts. I have a preference for high-priced stocks. But I am really starting to think about balancing my portfolio a little bit. In fact, I should have shorted all them and used smaller positions such as $5000 per position. I am seriously thinking about this strategy now. It is like casting a fishing-net. The bigger your net is, the more fish you will catch.

I miss my biking days in Japan. BTW, I grew up in Japan and I rode a bike to school and work everyday. It is good for health, environment, no maintenance cost and just good for everything. It is so dangerous to ride a bike where I live now.

Safe Driving, everyone.

I learned a painful lesson today, which I like to share with everyone here. I have been following X and MOS for a few days. I knew MOS would have a volatile day today since it just released its quarterly earnings, which is not bad, but not stellar either. So I decided that MOS was good for day trading. And I was not sure about whether I should day trade or Swing trade X. This hesitation bugged me all day long. And it finally took a toll on my performance . Here is how it went.

X gaped up without heavy volume, I knew it was not sustainable . So I faded the gap-up @40.85 right after the market open. It quickly tanked to 38.36. It was a solid big move(6%) by any day trading standard. Looking at the profit(600$), I started to think about swing trading it for a much bigger profit. At the same time I was looking at MOS for a day trading entry. So it kind of messed up my thought process.

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AAPL is a very solid company. Almost every single line of its products is solid. I believe long term investors will benefit from holding onto their positions.

On the contrary, as a short term speculator, I closed my AAPL position today. Check out My Portfolio . Why did I do that? One of my rules is that I get out when a stock hits its target. There are no buts, ifs, this and that. No thinking is allowed once a trade is opened. Thinking is done before I place a trade.

My target for aapl was actually pretty low (8-10%) and stop loss was 3%. It had a pretty good risk-reward ratio (1:3) with high probability. The low target was due to the sheer size of appl, which takes a tremendous amount of money to move it.

I have no open positions as of now. I am closely watching a few stocks for possible short entries. Pay attention to FSLR, POT, MOS, X, GS and SHLD

I lost 300+ from shorting Goldman Sachs again as you can see from My Portfolio . Before the market opened, we all knew that all other oversea markets had good rallies. My instinct told me not to short. But mystem generated a short signal. My experience told me that my system always beats my instincts hands down. So I did not hesitate to take the trade. Well, the result is that my instinct was correct and my system just generated a false signal. This one example does not invalidate my system at all.

A good system might generate false signals 50-60% of the time. But when it generates a good signal, it will give you a winner that is multiples of a loser. That is how we make money here. It is OK to be wrong.

I opened a long position in AAPL. I am closely watching X for a short entry. BTW, GS is not a loser for the longs.

Have a good weekend!