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swuzy, very keen observations and solid analysis. Solar has a lot of government backing here in the US. In the long run, I am bullish on the solar sector. That is the way to go to save energy and stay green. My short position was opened based on a few short-term elements such as it was overbought in the last few days and the general market has been in a downtrend. Good luck with your long position.

Also, if you look at FSLR from a weekly instead of daily bar perspective, you will see that about now, MACD lines show a very strong positive golden crossing, and MACD histograms are starting to break above zero after a deep long valley.

Cheers and Good Trading.

Hi Trader Mom,
You have a nice website. I've been watching FSLR. On Dec 16, there was a report released by an analyst that FSLR had achieved grid parity without any subsidies (FSLR 7.5 cents per KWH vs grid 9 cents per KWH). Grid parity is the Holy Grail for alt energy. The report is one analyst's calculations based on his various data and assumptions. If true and confirmed by other analysts, this is HUGE. Prior expectations were that FSLR will reach grid parity in 2010 and that the other silicon based competitors would reach grid parity in 2012.

On Dec 17, FSLR broke out of a 5 month down channel and broke its 50 day moving average on high volume. Subsequent pullbacks have been on very low volume (yes Xmas season/holidays factor in too).

If you take away the Nov 20, 21 outlier island reversal (itself a reversal signal), you will see that the Oct 7, 8, 9, 10 bottom, and the Oct 24, 27, 28, 29 bottom, and the Nov 19 to 24 bottom look very much like a triple bottom, the interim high of which is about $176. Ignoring the outlier island reversal, the bottom is about $100. The Target Price of the potential Triple Bottom is about $252. True Triple Bottoms being rare are dangerous to call, and only confirmed if price breaks above the interim high of $176.

I do feel that FSLR is sliding up an new up channel from Nov 20/21 bottom. It will meet the upslope in a few days, and may either slide up or bounce up.

If it breaks below the channel, well, your short is fine. But you probably should have a tight protective stop to preserve the short profits you have made so far.

Yes there remains a lot of supply overhang in FSLR, and so a lot of potential resistance on any path up. The market is not efficient, and most FSLR investors probably have not heard of the grid parity report, or remain dubious of it.

The report suggested that SPWRA a silicon competitor, would have to reduce its panel prices 52% in order to be competitive with FSLR's cadmium telluride thin film on glass panels. Also FSLR has a very much larger profit margin at its regular pricing compared to its crystaline silicon competitors.

There are reports of a huge oversupply of crystaline silicon, and because of that, prices may come down 20% in 2009. But again note that FSLR is said to provide a 52% cost advantage to its customers.

Yes I am long FSLR.
Cheers, and Good luck.

In this market 'growth' of companies is hard to come by.

I have made money with volatility.

Like going long on Rohm, GM etc and making a quick sale.

Yes Geek101, I am. I am trying vey hard to follow his advices. It is tough.

You sound like a Van Tharp disciple? :). I am trying to be one.

Adam. you are right about the emotional part. If you just started trading, don't press foward too hard and too fast. It takes a lot of hard work and time. Do not keep a pet.

Agree, with your post and comment. Just started trading in October and fell into the emotion trap at the end of November into December.

Our greatest enemies in trading are emotions, ego and uncontrolled greed.

CSO, 80% of my system is a bunch of rules for my mental framework. Technical indicators are wrong at least half of the time.

Hi,

Systems are deisgned using certain algorithm, structure, asumptions, etc. The current environment makes it impossible for anyone to rely solely on any system. I will advise that you use ur system as one of the tools you need to survive in this market.